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Cleland, Carol E. "Historical science, experimental science, and the scientific method", Geology 11:987-90, 2001.
Cleland, Carol E., "Methodological and Epistemic Differences between Historical and Experimental Science," Philosophy of Science 69,474-96, 2002.
Miller, K.B. "The similarity of theory testing in the historical and 'hard' sciences." Perspectives on Science and Christian Faithe 54:119-122, 2002.
For more information
Peter Lipton (2005) "Testing Hypotheses: Prediction and Prejudice" Science 307(5707):219-221.
Lipton explains some reasons why we should prefer predictions to post hoc explanations.